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Breaches/Verification/File 25-0223

For One Group, for One Year, the Claim Can Be Checked

This database discounts attacker figures on principle because nothing exists to test them against. The leaked archive is the exception, and the exception is small.

Constructed geometry · not a chart of case data
S. Rosler12 min readConfidence: medium3 sources reviewed

The verification theme running through this corpus rests on a structural complaint: the number in the headline usually came from the attacker, and the attacker is the only party who benefits from it being large.

The complaint is easy to make and almost impossible to act on, because nothing normally exists on the other side of it. The victim will not say, the regulator counts something different, and the attacker’s working papers do not exist as far as anybody outside can tell.

The Archive Is The First Working Papers This Desk Has Read About

What it shows, per the analyses at 25-0215, is that demands were priced against looked-up revenue rather than against the material taken. If that is right, the volume figure was never load-bearing even for the people asserting it.

That is a stronger result than "attackers exaggerate". Exaggeration implies the figure was a distorted measurement. This suggests it was not a measurement.

The Corpus Has One Other Test Of An Attacker Claim

At 25-0904 material a group had claimed did eventually appear, and the claim broadly held while meaning considerably less than the headline implied — a large volume of the least sensitive field is compatible with the claim and tells an affected person almost nothing.

Two tests, pointing the same way for different reasons. Neither is a basis for a general rule, and this desk is not going to write one.

What This Changes In Practice

Nothing in the grading. A claim from an attacker remains a claim, and files recording one stay where they are. The corpus does not retrospectively upgrade its own confidence because a different group’s internal messages leaked.

It changes the phrasing. Where this desk has written that a volume figure is unverified, the more accurate statement in at least one documented case is that it was never produced by a process that could be verified. Those are different admissions and the second is worse.

Graded medium: the inference is drawn from others’ readings of one archive covering one operation over roughly one year.

This is an analysis file

It reasons about this corpus’s own method using the published analyses cited at 25-0211 and 25-0215 and listed again below. This desk has not examined the leaked archive. No confidence grade elsewhere in the database has been changed as a result of this file. Corrections: corrections@forensicpost.com.

Sources
  1. Leaked Black Basta chat logs show banality of ransomwareBankInfoSecurity
  2. Breaking Basta: insights from Black Basta’s leaked ransomware chatsGuidePoint Security
  3. Black Basta exposed: a look at a cybercrime data leakIntel 471
S. Rosler
Covers extortion groups and leak-site economics. Verifies our sample sets.
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