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Ransomware/Analysis/File 25-1217b

Ransomware Encryption Rate Fell to 50% in 2025 From 70%

The reported encryption rate fell to 50% in 2025 from 70% the previous year. The corpus predicted where the pressure would go instead, and it went there.

Constructed geometry · not a chart of case data
TargetRansomware victims
ActorMultiple
S. Rosler12 min readConfidence: medium2 sources reviewed

Vendor research reports the ransomware encryption rate falling to 50% in 2025, from 70% in 2024.

The Corpus Called This In December 2025 And Again In July

At 25-1204 this desk filed that manufacturers blocking more ransomware attempts while adversaries shift to data theft are the same finding: better encryption prevention does not reduce attacker revenue, it changes what the attacker sells.

At 25-0713 the same argument was applied to Gulf banking, and at 25-1126c a London borough recorded data copied but not encrypted.

A twenty-point fall in the encryption rate is that argument measured. The corpus should record that it holds, and that the industry measured its progress against the technique it defeated rather than against the outcome.

Exfiltration-Only Is Worse For The Victim In One Specific Way

Encryption is recoverable with backups — Nevada recovered 90% at 25-0921. Publication is not recoverable at all, which the corpus established at 25-0507 where a payment bought a video, and at 25-0815 where a refusal produced 43GB online.

So an organisation that has invested in backups has hardened against the failure mode that is receding and not against the one that is growing.

And It Makes The Payment Decision Worse

Payment for a decryption key buys a verifiable deliverable. Payment for suppression buys an unverifiable promise — the position at 25-1231, sharpened by 124 active groups and 73 new entrants at 25-1226.

A shift from encryption to exfiltration is a shift from the transaction that sometimes works to the one this corpus has never seen work. Graded medium: single-vendor telemetry, per 26-0513.

This is an analysis file

Built on published vendor research, listed below, subject to the telemetry caution at 26-0513. Corrections: corrections@forensicpost.com.

Sources
  1. Faster attacks and recovery-denial ransomware reshape threat landscapeCSO Online
  2. Cybersecurity in 2025: the perfect stormCISO Global
S. Rosler
Covers extortion groups and leak-site economics. Verifies our sample sets.
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